FTN Financial Economic Weekly

Chris Low, and Rebecca Kooshak
The Trade Fight and the Global Economy

Trying to pin down the economic effect of the US-China trade fight is tricky, not least because tariffs have been applied, removed, and reapplied by both sides repeatedly as odds of a negotiated settlement rise and fall. After a significant increase in animosity and finger pointing in the past two weeks, we think the chance of a deal before next year’s election is minimal, which means elevated tariffs are likely to stick for a time. Nevertheless, both economic and inflation impacts are likely to be small, while market volatility is likely to be high.

Plus "The Week Ahead," a preview of next week’s potentially market-moving events.

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