The Weekly Report

  • Stocks have risen as much as 2% this week. Rates are flat to down from last Friday thanks to disappointing retail sales and a differences between the bonds and stocks on the amount of risk China poses to global growth. The first article highlights two developments this week. The 30-yr rally has been driven by lower real yields, a direct expression of both risk and growth concerns. Second, inflation expectations – which never recovered completely from last year’s trade war – have fallen near the lows again. Intermediate maturity technicals also tie directly into the negative sentiment about Asia and Europe, leaving Fed policy again at the mercy of international doubts rather than the US’s role as an island of relative strength.
  • Core CPI was up in January, but not enough to change the overall trend left behind by 2019. Look for core price growth to slow in February, as it usually does due to seasonal strength that appears to start each year.
  • Trading volume today was the lightest of the week into the holiday weekend. Technicals didn’t move much the last three days of the week.
  • The big numbers next week will be the preliminary, global purchasing manager reports for manufacturing.
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