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FTN Financial Economic Weekly

Economic Outlook Part II: Forecast Risks

We laid out the case for making next Wednesday’s rate hike the last for at least a year in Part I of our 2019 Economic Outlook. This week, we dive into forecast risks, identifying two major negative and two major positive risks to economic growth; with the Fed at the top of both lists, depending on how the FOMC chooses to approach policy from here. Given the 40% recession risk in the forecast, we start with the mirror image of last week’s Fed call.

Plus "The Week Ahead," a preview of next week’s potentially market-moving events.

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